Conventional Counterforce Dilemmas: South Korea's Deterrence Strategy and Stability on the Korean Peninsula

In response to North Korea's nuclear weapons program, South Korea is quietly pursuing an independent conventional counterforce and countervalue strategy. This strategy unique. Few, if any, nonnuclear states have sought rely on advanced capabilities deter a nuclear-armed adversary. Why strategy, what could its impact be strategic stability the Korean Peninsula? approach should understood as both short- long-term hedge against U.S. abandonment. Its deterrent effect, no matter how uncertain, acts short-term stopgap United States abandons Korea. Over long term, such ballistic cruise missiles bolster latency. At same time, we highlight that poses numerous technological operational difficulties has negative implications for arms race crisis stability. Given response, disarmament efforts focused purely bilateral U.S.–North relationship will not succeed. Rather, any agreement now need address growing gap in balance of forces Peninsula.